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Forex review. The weakening of the US dollar

  Forex review. The weakening of the US dollar

Trades last week remained influenced primarily by the events surrounding the decision of D. Trump to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, which again caused tension in the Middle East.

On this wave, quotes of "black gold" have jumped in the growth, pulling for themselves the exchange rates of commodity currencies, including the Russian ruble. The escalation of tension around Iran threatens to turn into a large-scale conflict and the resumption of Iran's work on the creation of nuclear weapons. Despite the fact that on Friday, oil prices and commodity exchange rates have corrected the probability of continuing their further growth, remains extremely high. Negative for oil quotations was not only the absence of news on Iran, but the release of data on the number of operating drilling rigs in the US, which last week rose to 844 from 834 units.

Of the interesting economic data that were published on Friday, the figures of the indices of prices for exports and imports to the US provoked interest, as they affect the overall dynamics of inflationary indicators.

According to the data presented, the import price index in the ratio of year to year fell in growth to 3.3% against 3.6% and expectations of an increase to 3.9%. In April, the indicator added 0.3% against the forecast of growth by 0.5% and decline in March by 0.2%. At the same time, the export price index showed a noticeable upward trend in annual terms of 3.8% against the expectations of growth of 3.6% and the previous value of 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.6% against expectations of an increase of 0.3% and the same growth in March.

The data was indeed positive and showed a shift in the economy towards exports against the previously prevailing imports. If things go further in this vein, we can assume that over time the trade balance will become steadily surplus, which in the future will be an important supporting factor for the US dollar.

This week, the attention of market players will be concentrated, of course, on the events around Iran. In addition, the data of economic statistics from Germany - figures on GDP, as well as the values ​​of this macroeconomic indicator for Great Britain will attract attention. Also there will be data on consumer inflation in Britain. If they together with the GDP values ​​are not at an altitude - this may serve as the basis for further fall in the rate of the British pound / dollar pair and in general sterling may be under serious pressure in the Forex market.

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